NOT NECESSARY TO TOLL, A&M EXPERT SAYS
12/5/06
by Senior Executive
Editor Paul Burka, TEXAS MONTHLY
Few things are
duller than a committee meeting in the interim between legislative
sessions. Witnesses drone on about policy choices involving arcane
issues. Some of the committees exist only for a short duration and
will vanish once the legislative session begins in January. The
media almost never shows up for these meetings, which explains why
the November 28 meeting of the Study Commission on Transportation
Financing received virtually no attention. But a few minutes into
the hearing, David Ellis, a co-author of a report by the Texas
Transportation Institute (TTI) at Texas A&M, dropped a bombshell on
the commission. He said that Texas could finance its highway needs
without toll roads. The headline for this post is based on
Ellis's testimony. I have not come
across any mainstream media reports of Ellis's remarks.
Ellis provided the
committee with some background on transportation policy. The demand
for new and expanded roads in the state's eight largest metro areas
is increasing much faster than TxDot can build them. Over the next
25 years, the population of these areas is projected to increase by
2.8% per year, employment by by 2.3%, vehicles by 2.7%, and daily
miles drive by 3%. Over the same period, the number of lane miles
that can be built with currently available funding will increase by
just .25% per year. Tx- Dot estimates that the state will need an
additional $68 billion over the next 25 years to improve mobility.
The TTI's estimate is slightly lower, $66.2 billion. Two-thirds of
the needed new construction will be in the state road system, or
some $44+ billion; the remainder represents improvements to local
roads.
The money for highway
construction comes from three sources: vehicle registration fees,
the state gasoline (more properly, motor fuels) tax, and
reimbursements from the federal gasoline tax, of which Texas sends
more revenue to Washington than it gets back. Of these sources, the
one that matters the most is the motor fuels tax. But the tax has
been losing ground to inflation in recent years.
Now, here is the crucial
part of Ellis's testimony: There are scenarios under which roads can
be financed:
1. Raise the motor fuels
tax, currently 20 cents per gallon, to 51 cents. Interestingly, a Tx-Dot
engineer had previously told the committee that the motor fuels tax
would have to be raised to $1.40 per gallon to pay for the needed
new construction. Needless to say, the Legislature is not going to
raise the tax by 31 cents, much less a buck twenty.
2. Raise the motor fuels
tax by 8 cents and index it to inflation, using not the consumer
price index, but a special highway construction index. The rate of
inflation has been 1/2% to 1 1/2 percent per year.
3. Don't raise
the gasoline tax at all. Instead, index it and put the incremental
revenue in the mobility fund, where it can be used to pay off bonds.
And here's the bombshell: "Under this scenario," Ellis said, " it
wouldn't be necessary to toll as a means of financing, although
that's certainly an option."
The cat is
out of the bag now. Tolls aren't the only way to pay for new roads.
Will the Legislature allow Tx-Dot to go
forward with its mammoth toll road plan, or will lawmakers devise a
solution that will allow revenue to be used to build free roads?
